The stressful and long decline of rosemary is concerning. This might be the most depressing analysis ever undertaken on urth list. I have felt myself to be very fortunate in my childhood heroes. I am so grateful that my time and Gene's just happened to overlap significantly.<div>
<br></div><div>There's a picture at the Fuller award I didn't know was taken at the time, where, for the many kindnesses he showed me, thinking we were mostly alone, I told him that I loved him, and he would always be my hero, thinking I would never see him again. Then the nebulas were in California the very next year, and Gene named grandmaster, so it proved to not be the last time.</div>
<div><br></div><div><font><span style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)"><a href="http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/cc282/maramini/Mobile%20Uploads/image_zps379db714.jpg">http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/cc282/maramini/Mobile%20Uploads/image_zps379db714.jpg</a></span></font></div>
<div><font><span style> </span></font></div><div><font><span style><br></span></font>On Sunday, July 13, 2014, Gwern Branwen <<a href="mailto:gwern@gwern.net">gwern@gwern.net</a>> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
On Mon, Jun 30, 2014 at 12:47 PM, Gwern Branwen <<a href="javascript:;" onclick="_e(event, 'cvml', 'gwern@gwern.net')">gwern@gwern.net</a>> wrote:<br>
> - Via <a href="http://www.patheos.com/blogs/jenniferfitz/2014/06/should-you-be-writing-right-now-and-what-about-the-kids-and-what-about-a-conference-this-summer/" target="_blank">http://www.patheos.com/blogs/jenniferfitz/2014/06/should-you-be-writing-right-now-and-what-about-the-kids-and-what-about-a-conference-this-summer/</a><br>
> , <a href="http://www.christiannewswire.com/news/9005474225.html" target="_blank">http://www.christiannewswire.com/news/9005474225.html</a> "Prominent<br>
> Catholic Writers to Speak at Catholic Writers Conference in Chicago<br>
> Area":<br>
<br>
By the way, I know how easy it is to let time slip by and never get<br>
around to doing something you always intended to do but never quite<br>
got around to. If you want to write fanmail, see Wolfe in the flesh,<br>
get an autograph for a book, perhaps buy an autographed special<br>
edition etc, you should do so soon. As soon as possible.<br>
<br>
It will sound morbid to point this out, but the odds are not good for<br>
Wolfe surviving too many more years, and if you pass up opportunities<br>
you may well discover you passed up your last such opportunity. List<br>
members may not have much experience with how elderly people can<br>
abruptly decline and die, or how mortality exponential increases over<br>
time in the Gompertz curve, so here's some numerical calculations from<br>
SSA actuarial tables.<br>
<br>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Wolfe" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Wolfe</a> tell us that Wolfe is now age<br>
83. <a href="http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html" target="_blank">http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html</a> 83: instantaneous risk<br>
of death that year, 0.083230 or 8.3%; remaining life expectancy: 6.66<br>
years.<br>
<br>
Over the next 7 years, each year an American male's risk of death is:<br>
<br>
- 83: 0.083230 (8%)<br>
- 84: 0.091933 (9%)<br>
- 85: 0.101625 (10%)<br>
- 86: 0.112448 (11%)<br>
- 87: 0.124502 (12%)<br>
- 88: 0.137837 (14%)<br>
- 89: 0.152458 (15%)<br>
- 90: 0.168352 (17%)<br>
- 91: 0.185486 (19%)<br>
- 92: 0.203817 (20%)<br>
- 93: 0.223298 (22%)<br>
<br>
Risk increases dramatically each year, and since that's just the risk<br>
each year, the cumulative risk increases even more dramatically. This<br>
is why despite billions of people on earth, only one person (Jeanne<br>
Calment) has survived to 122 years (and the record age has actually<br>
fallen steadily ever since).<br>
<br>
The probability of surviving to a particular age is the conjunction of<br>
each negated risk (since you have to not die in each previous year);<br>
so to survive to 84, one has to beat 1 * (1-0.083230) = 0.9168, and to<br>
survive to 85, one has to beat 1 * (1-0.083230) * (1-0.091933) =<br>
0.8325, and so on. It's easy to automate the calculation up to age 93<br>
in Haskell:<br>
<br>
ghci> scanl (*) 1 $ map (1-) [0.083230, 0.091933, 0.101625,<br>
0.112448, 0.124502, 0.137837, 0.152458, 0.168352, 0.185486, 0.203817,<br>
0.223298]<br>
~><br>
[1.0,0.91677,0.8324885835899999,0.7478869312826661,0.6637885416337929,0.5811455406233024,0.5010421827404082,0.42465429364417107,<br>
0.35316289400058754,0.28765612144399455,0.2290269137396439,0.1778856619554089]<br>
<br>
Or, the probability an American male (like Gene Wolfe) will survive to<br>
a specified age, having survived to age 83, is:<br>
<br>
- 1y, 84: 92%<br>
- 2y, 85: 83% (4/5)<br>
- 3y, 86: 75% (3/4)<br>
- 4y, 87: 66% (2/3)<br>
- 5y, 88: 58%<br>
- 6y, 89: 50% (coin flip)<br>
- 7y, 90: 42%<br>
- 8y, 91: 35% (1/3)<br>
- 9y, 92: 29%<br>
- 10y, 93: 23% (1/5)<br>
- 11y, 94: 18%<br>
<br>
These figures are population-wide averages, which don't take into<br>
account individual circumstances. On the positive side, Wolfe is<br>
high-status and has received many honors and can look back on a<br>
sterling writing career with great satisfaction; on the negative,<br>
Wolfe has lost his wife recently, which is a well-known risk factor<br>
for men, is not in perfect health, and may be overweight. On net, I'd<br>
say these figures are underestimates.<br>
<br>
So, this implies that if you pass up an opportunity this year in favor<br>
of next year, there's a >10% chance Wolfe will be permanently delayed;<br>
if you wait 2 years, ~20%, 3 years, 25%, and so on. These are not<br>
negligible risks.<br>
<br>
--<br>
gwern<br>
<a href="http://www.gwern.net" target="_blank">http://www.gwern.net</a><br>
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</blockquote></div>