(urth) math probability question for seven American nights - CORRECTION

[Marc Aramini]

Thanks.

(Almost every Middle Eastern name in the text is from the Adventures of
Hajji Baba, and interestingly enough, the detective sent to look for Nadan
at the start of the book, Hassan Kerbalai, is the name of Hajji Baba's
father.  I may have to read at least some of that book beyond the chapters
dealing with Nadan and Mirza and Osman Aga (a writer in Seven American
Nights and Baba's master in the older text, who sends him to purchase
lamb-skins to start the novel).  Baba means father or grandfather, and
when (in Wolfe's story) Nadan sees the old American man who has the writing
machine at the musuem he calls him grandfather. Pretty sure Hajji Baba
tries to defraud Nadan in Morier's book)

The play Visit to a Small Planet is by (EuGENE) Gore Vidal and the cat in
the play is named Rosemary - the second play, Mary Rose, with the two
disappearances of the titular character for periods of time, also seems to
play on Rosemary's name besides the allusions to Nadan's disappearance.

Even though The Adventures of Hajji Baba was very critical of the Middle
Eastern/Persian characters, it was popular there as kind of a satire that
revealed their societal shortcomings.  The same is true of Visit to a Small
Planet and its take on McCarthyism for America. Ironically these Americans
see it as a kind of  testament to their old greatness.
On Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 6:26 AM, Gerry Quinn <gerry at bindweed.com> wrote:

>
> On 07/09/2014 14:19, Gerry Quinn wrote:
>
>>
>> On 07/09/2014 13:34, Marc Aramini wrote:
>>
>>> I had a quick question but trying to articulate it to look it up
>>> independently is hard.
>>>
>>> Is there a statistically most probable day for Nadan to eat the special
>>> one of the six eggs on any given day given that the first day is 1/6 and
>>> then from there the probability that the egg is there begins to be
>>> something like 1/5  on the next day ( but the chance that it isn't there
>>> should be factored in somehow, but I wasn't sure if it was 1/5 - 1/6 ...
>>> Then 1/4-1/5-1/6 etc. ) Or is the system set up in such a way that the
>>> chance of getting the egg is always 1/6 regardless on any given morning
>>> assuming no eggs are stolen or disappear?
>>>
>>>
>> I don't have the book to hand, but if he is given six eggs, one special,
>> and eats one every day at random, the chance of getting the special egg on
>> any day is indeed 1/6, as you reckoned in your other post.
>>
>> The easiest way to see it is to imagine he decided at random the order to
>> eat them in advance, and laid all six in a row, each marked with its day
>> for eating.  Clearly the chance is the same for each day!
>>
>> - Gerry Quinn
>>
>
> Actually, that is the chance before the experiment,  If the first egg is
> to be eaten on Sunday, then before he eats it he knows that the chance of
> eating the special egg on any given day (say Tuesday) is 1/6.
>
> But that presupposes he has no clue as to when he has eaten the special
> egg.  If he can tell immediately, then after he eats Sunday's egg. he knows
> that either it was the special one, or it wasn't.  Depending on which, the
> chance that he will eat the special egg on Tuesday becomes either zero, or
> 1/5.
>
> If he has some information that might help him decide which egg is
> special, but cannot be certain, the answer is somewhere in between. I
> cannot remember the story well, but I suspect this is most likely the
> situation!
>
> - Gerry Quinn
>
>
>
>
>
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