(urth) Memento Mori, Re: This Week in Google Alerts: conference, sketch

Sun Jul 13 16:26:52 PDT 2014

At first I was depressed, then I was interested in the math, then I was
depressed again, then Marc's picture cheered me up. Here's to all the best
for Gene.
On Jul 13, 2014 7:22 PM, "Marc Aramini" <marcaramini at gmail.com> wrote:

> The stressful and long decline of rosemary is concerning. This might be
> the most depressing analysis ever undertaken on urth list.  I have felt
> myself to be very fortunate in my childhood heroes.  I am so grateful that
> my time and Gene's just happened to overlap significantly.
>
> There's a picture at the Fuller award I didn't know was taken at the time,
> where, for the many kindnesses he showed me, thinking we were mostly
> alone,  I told him that I loved him, and he would always be my hero,
> thinking I would never see him again.  Then the nebulas were in California
> the very next year, and Gene named grandmaster, so it proved to not be the
> last time.
>
>
> http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/cc282/maramini/Mobile%20Uploads/image_zps379db714.jpg
>
>
> On Sunday, July 13, 2014, Gwern Branwen <gwern at gwern.net> wrote:
>
>> On Mon, Jun 30, 2014 at 12:47 PM, Gwern Branwen <gwern at gwern.net> wrote:
>> > - Via
>> http://www.patheos.com/blogs/jenniferfitz/2014/06/should-you-be-writing-right-now-and-what-about-the-kids-and-what-about-a-conference-this-summer/
>> > , http://www.christiannewswire.com/news/9005474225.html "Prominent
>> > Catholic Writers to Speak at Catholic Writers Conference in Chicago
>> > Area":
>>
>> By the way, I know how easy it is to let time slip by and never get
>> around to doing something you always intended to do but never quite
>> got around to. If you want to write fanmail, see Wolfe in the flesh,
>> get an autograph for a book, perhaps buy an autographed special
>> edition etc, you should do so soon. As soon as possible.
>>
>> It will sound morbid to point this out, but the odds are not good for
>> Wolfe surviving too many more years, and if you pass up opportunities
>> you may well discover you passed up your last such opportunity. List
>> members may not have much experience with how elderly people can
>> abruptly decline and die, or how mortality exponential increases over
>> time in the Gompertz curve, so here's some numerical calculations from
>> SSA actuarial tables.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Wolfe tell us that Wolfe is now age
>> 83. http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html 83: instantaneous risk
>> of death that year, 0.083230 or 8.3%; remaining life expectancy: 6.66
>> years.
>>
>> Over the next 7 years, each year an American male's risk of death is:
>>
>> - 83: 0.083230 (8%)
>> - 84: 0.091933 (9%)
>> - 85: 0.101625 (10%)
>> - 86: 0.112448 (11%)
>> - 87: 0.124502 (12%)
>> - 88: 0.137837 (14%)
>> - 89: 0.152458 (15%)
>> - 90: 0.168352 (17%)
>> - 91: 0.185486 (19%)
>> - 92: 0.203817 (20%)
>> - 93: 0.223298 (22%)
>>
>> Risk increases dramatically each year, and since that's just the risk
>> each year, the cumulative risk increases even more dramatically. This
>> is why despite billions of people on earth, only one person (Jeanne
>> Calment) has survived to 122 years (and the record age has actually
>> fallen steadily ever since).
>>
>> The probability of surviving to a particular age is the conjunction of
>> each negated risk (since you have to not die in each previous year);
>> so to survive to 84, one has to beat 1 * (1-0.083230) = 0.9168, and to
>> survive to 85, one has to beat 1 * (1-0.083230) * (1-0.091933) =
>> 0.8325, and so on. It's easy to automate the calculation up to age 93
>> in Haskell:
>>
>>     ghci> scanl (*) 1 $ map (1-) [0.083230, 0.091933, 0.101625,
>> 0.112448, 0.124502, 0.137837, 0.152458, 0.168352, 0.185486, 0.203817,
>> 0.223298]
>>           ~>
>>
>>  [1.0,0.91677,0.8324885835899999,0.7478869312826661,0.6637885416337929,0.5811455406233024,0.5010421827404082,0.42465429364417107,
>>
>> 0.35316289400058754,0.28765612144399455,0.2290269137396439,0.1778856619554089]
>>
>> Or, the probability an American male (like Gene Wolfe) will survive to
>> a specified age, having survived to age 83, is:
>>
>> - 1y, 84: 92%
>> - 2y, 85: 83% (4/5)
>> - 3y, 86: 75% (3/4)
>> - 4y, 87: 66% (2/3)
>> - 5y, 88: 58%
>> - 6y, 89: 50% (coin flip)
>> - 7y, 90: 42%
>> - 8y, 91: 35% (1/3)
>> - 9y, 92: 29%
>> - 10y, 93: 23% (1/5)
>> - 11y, 94: 18%
>>
>> These figures are population-wide averages, which don't take into
>> account individual circumstances. On the positive side, Wolfe is
>> high-status and has received many honors and can look back on a
>> sterling writing career with great satisfaction; on the negative,
>> Wolfe has lost his wife recently, which is a well-known risk factor
>> for men, is not in perfect health, and may be overweight. On net, I'd
>> say these figures are underestimates.
>>
>> So, this implies that if you pass up an opportunity this year in favor
>> of next year, there's a >10% chance Wolfe will be permanently delayed;
>> if you wait 2 years, ~20%, 3 years, 25%, and so on. These are not
>> negligible risks.
>>
>> --
>> gwern
>> http://www.gwern.net
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